The 2026 Oscar race has entered a critical phase as the industry prepares for the Directors Guild Awards and Producers Guild Awards in February, two events that historically shape the final weeks of the Academy Awards campaign. With Golden Globes handed out and major guild nominations now complete, the field of contenders has solidified into a tight competition led by five films that have each secured double-digit nominations.
Sinners leads the pack with 14 nominations, followed closely by One Battle After Another with 13. Three other films—Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, and Hamnet—each earned 10 nominations, creating an unusually competitive year where multiple projects have achieved the rare feat of reaching the 10-plus nomination threshold.
Background
The 2026 awards season represents the culmination of a year-long journey that began at Sundance and wound through major film festivals including Berlin, Cannes, Venice, Telluride, Toronto, New York, and Los Angeles. This extended circuit allows films to build momentum and gather support from industry voters before the final push toward the Oscars.
The Golden Globes, which took place earlier this month, served as an important indicator of where the race stands. These awards often signal which films have broad appeal across the entertainment industry. Following that, most major guild nominations—including those from critics organizations and technical guilds—have been announced, giving a clearer picture of which projects have resonated most with different segments of the industry.
Key Details
The race for acting categories shows particular depth this year. In the Best Actress race, multiple contenders are competing strongly, with discussions centered on performances centered around the theme of motherhood. Jessie Buckley, Rose Byrne, Jennifer Lawrence, and Amanda Seyfried have all delivered notable performances that have caught the attention of voters.
The Best Actor race appears more settled, though some uncertainty remains in the fifth and sixth positions. Jacob Elordi's win for Frankenstein at the Critics Choice Awards significantly boosted his Oscar prospects. The Critics Choice Awards have proven predictive for Oscar outcomes, with a 32-year track record of accurately forecasting Academy winners.
Supporting actress categories show early frontrunners emerging. Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe for One Battle After Another and appears positioned strongly for an Oscar nomination. Amy Madigan has also gained recognition in this category.
Technical Categories Taking Shape
Four film scores have achieved a rare sweep across all major precursor awards, including Critics Choice, Golden Globe, Hollywood Music in Media, and Society of Composers & Lyricists awards. This kind of unanimous recognition across technical guilds typically signals strong Oscar momentum.
One smaller film, The Perfect Neighbor, has generated discussion about whether it can break into the Best Picture top five. If it manages to secure a nomination, it would represent a significant upset in a year dominated by heavily nominated projects.
What This Means
The February guild awards from the Directors Guild and Producers Guild carry outsized importance in shaping the final weeks of the Oscar campaign. These organizations include the professionals who actually make films, and their choices often carry weight with Academy voters who respect peer recognition.
"The Oscar nominations represent the current standings in the race," according to tracking from major awards publications.
With five films holding substantial nomination counts, the Best Picture race remains genuinely competitive. Sinners and One Battle After Another appear to be the frontrunners based on their nomination totals, but Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, and Hamlet have proven they have significant support across the industry.
The coming weeks will test whether the consensus that has formed through the guild awards holds or whether late-breaking developments shift the dynamics. The Directors Guild Awards, in particular, typically align closely with the Best Picture winner, making February's ceremony a potential turning point in the race.
For individual acting categories, the precursor awards have largely settled the field, though some uncertainty persists in supporting categories. The technical awards appear more decisive, with clear leaders emerging in cinematography, score, and other craft categories.
The 2026 Oscar ceremony will ultimately reflect months of campaigning, festival performances, and industry consensus-building. As the race moves into its final phase, the films that have dominated the precursor season appear well-positioned, but the Academy's final vote could still produce surprises in categories where multiple strong contenders remain competitive.
