Low Earth Orbit Faces Risk of Sudden Collapse in Days

Scientists have issued a warning about low Earth orbit, the area around Earth where most satellites fly. They say this space could shift from stable to chaotic in just days if operators lose control of their satellites. This could start a chain of crashes that sends debris raining down, disrupting services people rely on every day. The findings come from recent studies that model how crowded orbits behave under stress.

Background

Low Earth orbit sits between about 100 miles and 1,200 miles above the ground. Thousands of satellites circle there, providing internet, GPS, weather data, and TV signals. Companies like SpaceX have launched huge groups of satellites, called mega-constellations, to beam internet worldwide. Starlink alone has thousands in orbit, with plans for many more.

Space has gotten busier over the last few years. Back in 2018, there were far fewer objects up there. Now, satellites pass close to each other often. In all low Earth orbit mega-constellations, two satellites come within a mile every 22 seconds. For Starlink, it's every 11 minutes. Each satellite dodges objects about 41 times a year on average.

Debris adds to the problem. Old satellites, rocket parts, and bits from past crashes float around. A single crash can break a satellite into thousands of pieces, each moving fast enough to smash others. This is the start of what experts call a cascade.

Solar storms make things worse. These bursts from the sun heat the atmosphere, creating drag that pulls satellites off course. In May 2024, a big storm called the Gannon Storm forced over half of low Earth orbit satellites to burn fuel for maneuvers. Stronger storms can knock out satellite electronics, leaving them dead in the sky, unable to move.

The biggest recorded solar storm hit in 1859, known as the Carrington Event. It fried telegraph lines. A repeat today could blind satellites for days or longer.

Key Details

Researchers created a tool called the CRASH Clock to measure collision risk. CRASH stands for Collision Realization and Significant Harm. It counts how long until a big crash if no one controls the satellites.

As of June 2025, the clock read 2.8 days. That means if operators could not send commands right then, a catastrophic collision would happen in under three days. Back in 2018, that time was 121 days. The drop shows how fast risks have grown.

Even shorter blackouts carry danger. If control is lost for 24 hours, there is a 30% chance of a crash that seeds a full debris cloud. Models show orbits can go from stable to unstable in two to eight days. Once started, collisions feed on each other. One hit creates more debris, raising odds of the next hit.

The CRASH Clock Explained

The clock uses real tracking data on satellite positions and speeds. It runs simulations of what happens without maneuvers. Close approaches happen constantly now. Without action, math shows a big bang soon after.

Dense areas see the worst risks. Simulations find that past a certain crowd level, small changes lead to big failures. Current tracking and dodge plans assume slow buildup, not sudden shifts.

"If operators lose control for even just 24 hours, there's a 30% chance of a catastrophic collision that could act as the seed case for Kessler syndrome."
— Researchers behind the CRASH Clock study

Kessler syndrome is a long-term mess where debris fills orbits, blocking all launches for years. But these models point to a fast trigger for that slow doom.

What This Means

A collapse would hit daily life hard. GPS guides planes, ships, cars, and phones. No signals mean grounded flights, lost shipments, and farming without precise maps. Internet from space would cut out, leaving remote areas offline. Weather satellites help forecast storms; their loss delays warnings.

Communication breaks too. Emergency services, banks, and news rely on satellites. Debris would force shutdowns of whole orbit zones. New launches would wait years.

Costs add up. Fuel for dodges already drains satellites. Insurance for missions would jump. Some orbits might become no-go areas.

Cleanup is tough. Rules say to deorbit old satellites, but that fights gradual buildup, not sudden chains. Removing big debris helps little if tiny bits cause most crashes. Global talks are needed, but no quick fix exists.

Early warnings could buy time. Better models spot tipping points days ahead. Operators might cluster satellites or dump fuel to lower risks. But with launches speeding up, the clock ticks faster.

Space agencies track objects over a few inches wide. Smaller bits still smash gear. More radars and telescopes help, but coverage has gaps.

The shared sky means one bad launch or crash affects everyone. Nations and companies must coordinate. Without it, low Earth orbit heads toward breakdown.