Iowa Nears NCAA Lock as Bubble Teams Fight After Weekend Games

Iowa beat Northwestern on Sunday to move closer to a secure spot in the NCAA Tournament field. USC also picked up a win, but Ohio State, UCF, West Virginia and Tulsa saw their paths get harder after a weekend full of close games across the country.

Background

College basketball teams are in the final stretch of the regular season, with about a month left before the NCAA Tournament field gets set. Every game matters now, especially for teams on the bubble — those not quite safe but not out yet. Selection committees look at wins against strong opponents, overall records, and strength of schedule to decide who gets one of the 68 at-large bids.

Iowa has turned things around after missing the tournament the past two years. Under first-year coach Ben McCollum, the Hawkeyes started a long win streak with a big road victory at Indiana in mid-January. That Quadrant 1 win — against a top team on their home court — kicked off six straight victories. Sunday's win over Northwestern kept the streak alive and pushed Iowa's record to 17-5 overall and 7-4 in the Big Ten.

Their resume ranks around 30th nationally on average, mixing metrics from mid-40s to low-20s. Predictive ratings put them even higher, around 22nd, showing they play better than their record suggests. Nine games remain, including tough ones against ranked teams. A road win like the one at Indiana counts as Quadrant 1A, the highest level.

Other teams face different fights. USC stayed alive with a win, but losses elsewhere hurt squads like Ohio State. UCF, West Virginia and Tulsa sit in shaky spots, needing more quality wins to convince the committee.

Key Details

Iowa's latest win came against a Northwestern team that hung tough. The Hawkeyes pulled away for a 10-point victory, showing depth and defense. This keeps them in the 'safe but not guaranteed' group, close to joining locks like Illinois, Michigan, Nebraska and Purdue in the Big Ten.

Iowa's Path Forward

Upcoming games include a trip to Maryland on Wednesday, then matchups at Wisconsin, Penn State and others. The schedule toughens up, ranked around 24th nationally in difficulty. Three wins against Northwestern, Maryland and Penn State look within reach. Hitting 20 wins should land them a lower seed.

"Iowa's résumé rankings are all over the place, ranging from the mid-40s in KPI to the low-20s in NET, averaging out to 30th nationally. That's still on the right side of the bubble, with some room to spare," said ESPN's Neil Paine.

USC fought off a challenge to win on Sunday, staying in the 'on the bubble, favoring exit' category alongside Washington. Their record holds up, but they need to avoid bad losses. Ohio State, in the 'favoring entry' group with Indiana, UCLA and Wisconsin, dropped a key game this weekend. A loss here hurts because their margin for error is thin.

UCF leads the 'favoring entry' in their conference but faces pressure from teams like Oklahoma State. West Virginia and Tulsa have work to do after mixed results. Tulsa, for example, ranks near the top-50 in resume but missed a chance for a big Quad 1 win against USF. Their next game at Wichita State is make-or-break.

TCU grabbed a needed win over Kansas State, sitting just above long-shot status with three Quad 1 wins, including one over Florida. Virginia Tech lost to NC State, dropping their at-large odds to 27%. Their tough ACC schedule — ninth hardest remaining — makes upsets essential.

Teams like Texas A&M hold steady despite recent losses, projected for 21 wins. In the Mountain West, bids look slim, with New Mexico, San Diego State and others struggling.

What This Means

Iowa's streak positions them for a return to March Madness, likely as a lower seed if they avoid collapses. A few more wins pad their resume against a harder schedule. For bubble teams, Sunday split results widened the gap. Winners like Iowa and USC gain breathing room; losers like Ohio State must rebound fast.

Ohio State, UCF, West Virginia and Tulsa now need quality victories in limited games. UCF favors entry but watches rivals closely. Tulsa's Wichita State trip could swing their case. West Virginia faces a deficit in wins and strength.

The Big Ten could send many teams, with Iowa joining safer ones. SEC teams like Texas A&M fight for spots in a crowded league. Conference tournaments loom, offering auto-bids for winners but at-large pressure for others.

Every remaining game shapes the bracket. Locks like Arizona, BYU, Houston and Iowa State watch from above. Eliminated teams like Arizona State, Cincinnati and Utah focus on next year. The bubble shifts daily, with predictive models updating after each result.