Budget Cuts Threaten Polar Vortex and Weather Research

A major winter storm is moving across the central United States right now, putting tens of millions of people at risk of heavy snow, high winds, and freezing temperatures. This comes as Congress has passed a spending bill that trims federal funds for climate and weather research, including work on the polar vortex and jet stream that drive such storms.

Background

Winter storms like this one happen every year in North America. Lately, though, the patterns have changed as the planet warms up. Scientists track these shifts to improve weather forecasts and help people prepare. Many of those scientists work at federal labs or get money from government agencies.

The Trump administration pushed for big cuts to these programs last year. It wanted to slash budgets at places like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, NASA's earth science work, and the National Science Foundation, or NSF. The White House even planned to break up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, or NCAR, in Boulder, Colorado. That center does key modeling for weather forecasts used worldwide.

Congress did not go along with the deepest cuts. The Senate passed a spending package on Thursday that keeps funding close to current levels for agencies like the Interior Department, US Forest Service, NOAA, and the Environmental Protection Agency. The House approved it earlier this month. Now it waits for President Trump to sign it. The bill is a deal between Republicans and Democrats. It holds back some spending but saves most science programs from huge losses.

Still, the agreement includes small drops in funds. It does not add money for rising costs like inflation. For example, NCAR did not get its own line of funding in the bill. Instead, NSF is told to keep it going. That leaves the center's future unclear, especially with the administration's push to end it.

Colorado senators Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper tried to add specific money for NCAR but lost that fight. Scientists worry this could hurt long-term work on weather patterns.

Key Details

The bill sets NOAA's budget at about $6.17 billion, roughly the same as last year. It moves some weather research from NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research to the National Weather Service. But it keeps climate and ocean programs at near-current levels, rejecting the administration's call to wipe them out.

Impacts on Key Agencies

NSF sees a 3.4% cut, down to around $8.8 billion. Its research stays steady at $7.1 billion, spread across directorates. Education programs get $938 million, including $285 million for graduate fellowships. The administration had wanted to cut those by up to 75%.

NASA takes a 1.6% hit. The US Geological Survey drops 2.1% to $1.4 billion. EPA science and technology funds hold at $744 million, a 3.5% dip but far above the proposed 43% slash.

At the Department of Energy, fossil energy funding falls 16.8% to $720 million, with deep cuts to methane controls and clean gas tech. Fusion research sees a 14.7% reduction, though US payments to the ITER project stay higher than requested.

NCAR stands out as a worry point. It builds models for jet stream and polar vortex studies. Those help predict storms like the one now hitting the Midwest and East Coast. The center's staff and tools support forecasts that guide shipping, city planning, and disaster prep.

Last year, government efficiency moves created hundreds of empty spots at National Weather Service offices. The administration later filled many. But cuts to NASA's earth programs and NSF grants hit university researchers too.

In December, the White House budget office said NCAR was under review for breakup. No update has come on that.

"It's unlikely to manifest as a sudden loss of a particular service, but it might cause weather forecasting to be more unreliable." – Hannah Safford, associate director of climate and environment for the Federation of American Scientists

"This package rejects President Trump’s push to let our competitors do laps around us by slashing federal funding for scientific research by upward of 50% and killing thousands of good jobs in the process." – Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), vice chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee

What This Means

Right now, the winter storm has closed roads, canceled flights, and strained power grids from the Plains to the Northeast. Better understanding of the polar vortex—where cold air plunges south from the Arctic—could mean earlier warnings and fewer deaths.

Trims to NCAR and other programs might slow that progress. Models could get less sharp over time. Forecasts might miss details on storm paths or strength. Farmers, truckers, and emergency teams rely on this data daily.

Flat funding does not cover inflation, so buying power shrinks. Labs may lose staff or delay projects. Universities could see fewer grants for young scientists studying climate links to extreme weather.

The bill blocks the worst ideas, like ending NOAA climate work or gutting NSF education. But without steady rises, research lags behind needs. As storms grow fiercer, gaps in knowledge could cost lives and money.

Advocates from groups like Next Interior say the deal is a start but not enough. They watch for workarounds to protect NCAR. Senators from Colorado and others push for fixes in coming budgets.

For people in the storm's path, federal research feels distant. But it shapes how cities build, where roads go, and when evacuations start. Small cuts today add up to bigger risks tomorrow.