China’s trade surplus hits record $1.2 trillion despite US tariffs

China's trade surplus climbed to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, extending a streak of strong economic performance in one of the world's most important manufacturing sectors. The milestone was driven by a surge in exports during the final month of the year, when shipments grew 6.6 percent compared to December 2024—more than double what economists had predicted.

The December figures released by China's General Administration of Customs showed that Chinese exporters found ways to adapt and thrive even as trade relations with the United States grew tense. While shipments to America faced headwinds from tariffs, Chinese manufacturers successfully redirected their goods to other markets around the world, keeping the overall export engine running strong.

Background

China's dominance in global trade has long been a defining feature of the modern economy. The country manufactures everything from smartphones to machinery to clothing that reaches consumers across the planet. For years, the United States has been China's largest single market, but that relationship has grown increasingly complicated.

When Donald Trump returned to the presidency, he moved quickly to impose new tariffs on Chinese goods. These taxes on imports were meant to pressure China and shift manufacturing back to America. The tariffs created real challenges for Chinese exporters, who faced higher costs and potential losses if they wanted to keep selling to American customers.

Yet China's overall trade performance in 2025 suggests that the tariffs, while disruptive in specific sectors, did not derail the broader export machine. Instead of accepting smaller sales, Chinese companies looked elsewhere. They found customers in Japan, Europe, Southeast Asia, and other regions hungry for affordable, quality manufactured goods.

Key Details

The December export numbers tell the story of adaptation. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted that exports would grow just 3.1 percent. The actual figure of 6.6 percent was more than double that estimate. This kind of surprise to the upside suggests that demand for Chinese goods remains strong globally.

Imports also performed better than expected. China brought in goods at a 5.7 percent growth rate in December, compared to forecasts of just 0.9 percent growth. This improvement in import demand signals that Chinese consumers and businesses are spending more, even though the country's property market has struggled for years and investment has slowed.

The December trade surplus reached $114 billion, just shy of the $114.3 billion that economists had expected. This surplus—the difference between what China sells abroad and what it buys from other countries—reflects a fundamental imbalance in the global economy. China makes more than it consumes, while many other countries, especially the United States, consume more than they make.

The bigger picture

Over the full year 2025, China's exports totaled $3.77 trillion, up 5.5 percent from 2024. Imports came in at $2.58 trillion, essentially flat compared to the previous year. The $1.2 trillion surplus represents the gap between these two figures.

Of particular note, China maintained a trade surplus of $280.35 billion with the United States alone in 2025. This number is striking because it shows that even with Trump's tariffs in place, American demand for Chinese goods remained strong. Companies and consumers in the United States continued to buy Chinese products, suggesting that tariffs may have raised prices but did not eliminate demand.

"Chinese exporters aggressively sought out customers in other markets when shipments to the United States plunged after US President Donald Trump hiked tariffs." – Bloomberg reporting on China's customs data

What This Means

The record trade surplus reveals several truths about the current global economy. First, China's manufacturing sector remains highly competitive. Despite concerns about rising labor costs and competition from other countries, Chinese factories continue to produce goods that the world wants to buy.

Second, the numbers highlight a persistent weakness in China's domestic economy. A massive trade surplus typically means that a country is saving more than it is spending. For China, this reflects the reality that Chinese consumers are not buying enough imported goods, and Chinese businesses are not investing enough in foreign materials and equipment. The country's long property slump and slower investment growth have kept domestic demand suppressed.

Third, the tariff strategy appears to have had mixed results so far. While tariffs did reduce some shipments to America, they did not collapse Chinese exports overall. Chinese companies found alternative markets, and American consumers and businesses continued to buy Chinese goods despite higher prices. This suggests that tariffs alone may not be enough to significantly reshape global trade patterns.

For manufacturers around the world, China's export performance is a reminder of the competitive pressure they face. Chinese factories can produce at scale and at costs that are hard to match. The diversification of Chinese exports to new markets also means that companies in Europe, Southeast Asia, and elsewhere face increased competition from Chinese goods.

For policymakers in the United States and other countries, the data raises questions about whether current trade strategies are achieving their goals. If the aim is to reduce China's trade surplus or bring manufacturing back home, the 2025 numbers suggest that progress has been limited so far.