President Trump is facing a stark warning from his top military advisors about the dangers of launching an attack on Iran, even as the Pentagon prepares contingency plans for potential strikes. The cautionary message from military leadership comes as the Trump administration grapples with how to respond to Iran's nuclear program and recent crackdowns on civilian protesters, creating a complex situation with no easy answers.
The Pentagon's concerns center on the unpredictable consequences of military action. A limited strike could provoke a wider conflict rather than contain it. Iran has already signaled it's prepared to retaliate forcefully if attacked. The military also worries about protecting American personnel in the region and the broader implications for global stability.
Key Takeaways
- Pentagon leadership is warning Trump about acute risks and unpredictable consequences of attacking Iran
- The administration is exploring a nuclear deal that would allow Iran limited "token" enrichment while preventing weapons development
- Military options range from limited strikes on Revolutionary Guard facilities to regime-change operations targeting Iran's leadership
- Iran has roughly two weeks to present a detailed proposal before the U.S. may consider military action
Background
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated dramatically since late 2025. Nationwide protests erupted in Iran, and security forces responded by massacring thousands of civilians. Trump publicly supported the protesters, telling them "help is on the way" and reinforcing the American military presence in the region.
In June of last year, the U.S. launched Operation Midnight Hammer, striking Iranian nuclear facilities and destroying centrifuges at enrichment sites. That operation set back Iran's nuclear program by several months, but Iran has signaled it won't abandon its ambitions. The regime has been fortifying underground facilities and preparing to resume work.
Trump has made clear his position: no nuclear weapons in Iran. On January 28, he announced that "a massive Armada is heading to Iran" and demanded Tehran "quickly come to the Table and negotiate a fair and equitable deal."
Since then, the U.S. military buildup has been substantial. The USS Ford aircraft carrier was diverted from the Caribbean back to the Mediterranean in mid-February. Additional air forces followed. The current force level is comparable to what was used in Operation Desert Fox in 1998, which involved four days of sustained bombing campaigns.
Key Details
The Military Options on the Table
The Pentagon has presented Trump with multiple scenarios. One involves limited strikes targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij militia compounds. These would be designed to punish Iran for killing protesters and force the regime back to the negotiating table from a weaker position.
Another option is more dramatic. Military planners have devised a strategy to eliminate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his son Mojtaba, who's seen as a possible successor. This approach would target key clerical figures in the regime.
"They have devised plans for every scenario. One option involves taking out the ayatollah and his son along with the clerics. What the president will choose remains unknown. Even he may not have made up his mind." — Senior Trump administration official
With current force levels, the U.S. could launch 50 to 100 long-range missiles against Iranian targets supporting the nuclear program or security forces. Such an operation would align with Trump's stated reasons for military action: supporting demonstrators and preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
The Diplomatic Alternative
Parallel to military preparations, negotiations are happening. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a proposal would be ready within two to three days. Trump's representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Araghchi in Geneva and requested a comprehensive proposal addressing all U.S. concerns.
The Trump administration's opening position was "zero enrichment" on Iranian soil. But officials have indicated flexibility. If Iran's proposal includes "minimal, token enrichment" and includes detailed evidence it poses no weapons threat, the U.S. would consider it.
Iran's proposal is expected to include "political commitments and technical measures" to guarantee its nuclear program stays peaceful. The UN nuclear watchdog, led by Raphael Grossi, is involved in discussions and has proposed technical measures to ensure Iran's program can't be diverted to weapons development.
The stakes are high. A senior official told Axios: "President Trump will be inclined to accept a substantial deal that he can present positively to his domestic audience. If Iran wishes to avoid an attack, they need to present an offer that is compelling. They have repeatedly let opportunities slip by. If they continue to play games, patience will wear thin."
The Timing Question
U.S. and Israeli officials have suggested Trump might initiate a strike as early as this weekend. But Trump himself hasn't made a final decision. One senior advisor explained the uncertainty: "The president has not yet made a decision to launch an attack. I know this because we have not acted. He may never opt for it. He could wake up tomorrow and declare, 'That's enough.'"
Trump has said he'll decide within the next 10 days whether to attack. The White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated: "The media can speculate endlessly on the President's intentions, but ultimately, only President Trump knows what he might or might not do."
What This Means
The Pentagon's warnings reflect genuine military concerns. A limited strike might not deter Iran or change its nuclear calculus. The regime has stated it's preparing retaliatory measures. Those could target American personnel across the Middle East, U.S. allies like Israel and Gulf nations, or American interests globally.
The diplomatic track offers a potential off-ramp. But it requires Iran to make serious concessions. The regime maintains that its ballistic missile program and support for regional proxy groups are non-negotiable—exactly where the Trump administration demands drastic changes.
Some Trump advisors have recommended patience, arguing that as time passes and U.S. military presence grows, American negotiating power increases. Others worry that delay gives Iran time to rebuild its nuclear capabilities.
The current situation is essentially a high-stakes standoff. Iran has roughly two weeks to present a proposal convincing enough to satisfy Trump and his team. If that doesn't happen, military action becomes more likely. But even with military preparations complete, Trump hasn't committed to using force.
What's clear is that the military leadership is making sure Trump understands the risks. A strike could work tactically but create strategic problems. It could rally Iranians around their government rather than weaken it. It could destabilize the entire region and draw in other actors.
Trump will ultimately decide based on what proposal Iran submits and whether he believes diplomacy can work. His advisors remain uncertain which way he'll go.
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly is Iran's nuclear program doing right now?
Currently, Iran is not enriching uranium. American airstrikes last June destroyed centrifuges at Iranian nuclear facilities. However, Iran has stated it will continue its nuclear program and has been fortifying underground facilities. The U.S. and Israel have warned they'll strike again if enrichment resumes. Iran's proposal to the U.S. is expected to outline how it would conduct a peaceful program while allowing some limited enrichment under international monitoring.
How much time does Iran have to make a deal?
Iranian officials said a proposal would be ready within two to three days from when they made that statement (around February 21). U.S. officials have indicated Iran has roughly two weeks to submit something detailed enough to satisfy the Trump administration. Trump himself said he'd make a decision about military action within 10 days. The timeline is tight, and both sides seem aware that opportunities could close quickly.
What would a "token" enrichment deal actually look like?
The details haven't been finalized, but the concept is that Iran would be allowed to conduct limited nuclear enrichment under strict international oversight, with technical measures ensuring the material can't be diverted to weapons development. The UN nuclear watchdog would likely play a verification role. Iran would need to provide detailed evidence that enrichment levels and methods couldn't support a weapons program. This would represent a significant shift from Trump's initial "zero enrichment" demand but would still fall far short of what Iran historically wanted.
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly is Iran’s nuclear program doing right now?
Currently, Iran is not enriching uranium after American airstrikes last June destroyed centrifuges at nuclear facilities. However, Iran has stated it will continue its nuclear program and has been fortifying underground facilities. The U.S. and Israel have warned they’ll strike again if enrichment resumes.
How much time does Iran have to make a deal?
Iranian officials said a proposal would be ready within two to three days from mid-February. U.S. officials indicated Iran has roughly two weeks to submit something detailed enough to satisfy the Trump administration. Trump said he’d make a decision about military action within 10 days.
What would a ‘token’ enrichment deal actually look like?
Iran would be allowed to conduct limited nuclear enrichment under strict international oversight, with technical measures ensuring material can’t be diverted to weapons development. The UN nuclear watchdog would likely play a verification role. This would represent a shift from Trump’s initial ‘zero enrichment’ demand.
