Iowa Nears NCAA Lock as Bubble Teams Fight On After Weekend

Iowa beat Northwestern on Sunday to move closer to a lock for the NCAA men's basketball tournament. Other bubble teams like USC picked up wins, but Ohio State, UCF, West Virginia and Tulsa saw their paths get harder after a full weekend of games across the country.

Background

College basketball teams are in the final stretch before Selection Sunday for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Many squads sit on the bubble, meaning they need good wins to earn an at-large bid. The selection committee looks at records, strength of schedule, quality wins and losses in different quadrants. Quadrant 1 games are the toughest, against top teams on the road or neutral sites. Quadrant 1A is the highest level within that.

Iowa has missed the tournament the past two years. Under first-year coach Ben McCollum, the Hawkeyes started slow but turned things around. They sit at 17-5 overall and 7-4 in the Big Ten with nine games left. A mid-January road win at Indiana, a Quadrant 1A victory, kicked off a six-game win streak. That run continued Sunday against Northwestern. USC also won, helping their case in a crowded field.

Ohio State, UCF, West Virginia and Tulsa had mixed results. The weekend packed in key matchups that shifted résumés up and down. With conference tournaments starting soon, every game counts. Teams must balance regular-season finishes with tournament runs to impress the committee.

Key Details

Iowa's win over Northwestern added to their momentum. The Hawkeyes now rank around 30th in résumé averages, from mid-40s in some metrics to low-20s in others. They check in even higher, around 22nd, in predictive ratings that look ahead. Their record stands strong, but they lack many Quadrant 1 wins. Still, the recent streak makes them hard to ignore.

"Iowa's résumé rankings are all over the place, ranging from the mid-40s in KPI to the low-20s in NET, averaging out to 30th nationally. That's still on the right side of the bubble, with some room to spare," said analyst Neil Paine.

USC pulled out a victory too, though details from their game show they fought hard. On the other side, Ohio State dropped a game, leaving them with work to do. Their schedule includes tough Big Ten foes, and recent losses hurt their standing.

Struggling Bubble Teams

UCF lost ground after a skid in Big 12 play. They trail teams like Oklahoma State in records and quality wins. A Saturday win over Kansas State helped TCU stay afloat, but UCF needs more. West Virginia faces a similar fight, with a record that does not stand out against bubble rivals. Tulsa's recent games did not deliver the quality wins they hoped for. Their best shot came against USF, but it slipped away.

Virginia Tech's odds fell after a loss to NC State. They sit at 27% for an at-large bid heading into the weekend, now lower. Their remaining ACC schedule ranks ninth toughest. Teams like SMU and Miami have similar records but easier paths ahead.

Texas A&M holds steady despite losses to Alabama and Florida. Models give them over 80% chance for a bid. They project to hit 21 wins by season's end. In the SEC, they rank eighth among likely tournament teams, with a gap to those below.

Utah State rebuilt a cushion with a 20-point road win over New Mexico. They hold a 9-2 record against top quadrants, including three Quadrant 1 wins. Their closing stretch includes games against bubbly Mountain West teams and powerhouses like Memphis.

NC State moved off the bubble with a six-game win streak, including road wins over Clemson and SMU. They now project as a No. 8 seed or better.

What This Means

Iowa's next game is at Maryland on Wednesday. Their schedule toughens, jumping to 24th hardest nationally. Wins over Northwestern, Maryland and Penn State look within reach. Games at Wisconsin and against Ohio State will test them. A 20-win total should secure a lower seed.

Bubble teams face pressure. Ohio State must string wins together in the Big Ten. UCF and West Virginia need upsets in the Big 12, where schedules are brutal. Tulsa's trip to Wichita State on Saturday is their last big chance for a quality win before conference play heats up. TCU hosts Iowa State Tuesday, facing the league's easiest remaining slate.

The Big 12 and ACC remain cutthroat. Big 12 teams like UCF fight for few bids. In the ACC, Virginia Tech's tough slate could sink them without surprises. SEC teams like Texas A&M benefit from depth, but spots are tight.

Mountain West leagues struggle this year. Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada and Grand Canyon all bubble, but the conference may get just two bids. Utah State plays those teams plus UNLV, Memphis and Fresno State. Winning five of eight locks them in strong.

Miami's losses to Florida State and California hurt. Cal might sneak in while Miami misses. Seton Pirates need a 6-1 finish, including at UConn or over St. John's, to have a shot.

As Champ Week nears, auto-bids loom for conference winners. At-large hopefuls like Iowa aim to avoid reliance on that. Ohio State, UCF, West Virginia and Tulsa must boost metrics fast. Iowa trends toward a return to March Madness, but no spot is safe until brackets drop.