Duke Returns to Top Seed in NCAA Bracket Projections

Duke's men's basketball team has returned to the No. 1 seed position in the latest NCAA tournament bracket projections. This comes after a key road win over California that boosted their resume. The Atlantic Coast Conference now has eight teams projected as single-digit seeds, including Duke on the top line, pointing to a strong showing from the league halfway through the season.

Background

Duke entered the 2025-26 season with high expectations. The team sits at 16-1 overall and 5-0 in ACC play. They lost just once, to Texas Tech earlier, which dropped them briefly from the top seed spot. A recent victory over California changed that. California holds a 13-5 record and 1-4 in conference, making it a quality win for Duke.

This win marked Duke's seventh Quadrant 1 victory. Quadrant 1 games are the toughest opponents on the road or neutral sites, or home games against top teams. Only Arizona and Michigan match Duke's count in those wins, though both teams rank slightly higher in some metrics. Duke now sits at No. 3 in the NCAA NET rankings, a key measure used for tournament selection.

The ACC has surprised many this year. Preseason polls did not predict this level of success. Teams like Clemson, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, SMU, Miami, and NC State all project as seeds from 5 to 9. This group represents half of the league's powerhouses making deep tournament runs in projections.

Duke's success ties into broader league trends. Stanford, a surprise in the ACC at 14-4 and 3-2, just beat North Carolina 95-90. That puts Stanford at 4-1 in Quadrant 1 wins. The Cardinal face Duke next on their West Coast trip, adding pressure to maintain the top seed.

Key Details

In ESPN's latest bracket, Duke joins Arizona, Michigan, and UConn as No. 1 seeds. CBS Sports also lists Duke and UConn rising to the top after losses by Vanderbilt and Iowa State. Those teams dropped following defeats to unranked conference opponents.

Duke leads the nation in Quadrant 1 wins. Their edge over UConn comes from consistent high-level play. UConn holds a 13-game winning streak, tops in the nation alongside BYU, excluding unbeaten teams. The Huskies dominate wins above bubble, a stat measuring value over average tournament teams.

ACC Teams in Projections

• Clemson: 5-seed
• Virginia: 5-seed
• Louisville: 6-seed
• North Carolina: 6-seed
• SMU: 7-seed
• Miami: 8-seed
• NC State: 9-seed

NC State enters some brackets as new this week. They beat Florida State 113-69 on the road, improving efficiency numbers. The Wolfpack stay undefeated against lower quadrants, bolstering their case.

Stanford leads the ACC in scoring with guard Ebuka Okorie at 22.9 points per game. He scored 36 against North Carolina. Duke counters with freshman Cam Boozer, a five-star talent driving their 16-1 start.

Other top teams hold steady. Arizona remains strong, while Michigan and BYU rise in some projections. The SEC surges with Texas, Texas A&M, and Missouri, but lacks a top-two seed after Vanderbilt's slip.

"Duke is right behind UConn at No. 2 in wins above bubble as the Blue Devils lead the nation in Quad 1 wins with seven." – Bracket analyst

What This Means

Duke's top seed spot puts them in line for a favorable tournament path. No. 1 seeds often host early rounds, easing travel and crowd support. Their seven Quadrant 1 wins set a high bar. A win over Stanford on Saturday would lock in that status during a tough West Coast swing.

For the ACC, eight single-digit seeds mean multiple teams could reach the second weekend. Bubble teams like some ACC squads hover near the cut line, but strong finishes keep them safe. NC State's metrics now rank top 50 in resumes and top 30 predictive.

UConn's streak and metrics make them a lock. Losses by Iowa State and Vanderbilt open doors for others. Saint Mary's needs a win over Santa Clara to jump from First Four Out to a projected 9-seed. Their 17-2 record looks solid, but they lack elite wins.

Duke faces challenges ahead. Retaining the 1-seed requires wins in big games. Stanford's upset of North Carolina shows ACC road games carry weight. Freshmen like Boozer and Okorie highlight a youth movement in the league.

Projections shift weekly. High-major leagues like the SEC add teams, but ACC's depth stands out. Texas A&M, Auburn, Oklahoma State, and New Mexico sit as last in, while Indiana, Virginia Tech, UCLA, and Ohio State wait outside. Duke's position reflects their play, but the full season decides the real seeds.