Climate Cycles Link Floods and Droughts Worldwide

Scientists who track Earth's water levels from space have found that El Niño and La Niña climate events are causing floods and droughts to strike different continents at the same time. This connection means places thousands of miles apart can face heavy rains or severe dryness together, and since about 2012, dry spells have become more frequent than floods around the globe.

Background

El Niño and La Niña are part of a natural climate pattern called ENSO, which happens in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño brings warmer waters to the surface, while La Niña cools them down. These shifts change weather patterns across the planet, affecting rain, temperatures, and storms.

For years, experts have known these events cause local weather changes, like heavy rains in some spots and dry weather in others. But recent work shows they also create links between far-off regions. Researchers looked at data from satellites that measure total water storage on land, including soil moisture, groundwater, and surface water. This gave a full picture of water extremes over the past 20 years.

Before 2011, wet extremes like floods were more common worldwide. Around 2011 or 2012, things shifted. Dry extremes started to dominate. This change ties to a longer climate pattern in the Pacific that strengthens ENSO effects. As a result, water shortages now happen more often than excess water in many areas.

Past events show the pattern clearly. In the mid-2000s, El Niño led to extreme dryness in South Africa. In 2015 and 2016, it did the same in the Amazon region. La Niña brought heavy rains to Australia, southeast Brazil, and South Africa in 2010 and 2011. These examples prove how one event can trigger similar conditions in places that seem unrelated.

Key Details

The study points to ENSO as the main force behind global water extremes over the last two decades. When these events get strong, they push regions into wet or dry states together. For instance, El Niño might dry out one area while La Niña dries another, but the overall effect syncs the extremes across continents.

Regional Patterns

Different areas respond in set ways. During El Niño, places like the Middle East, eastern Argentina, eastern China, Korea, and southern Japan often see drought. South Africa and the Amazon have faced severe dry spells too. La Niña tends to bring more rain to Indonesia, the Philippines, parts of Australia, Central America, northern South America, and southeastern Africa. In the United States, it means wetter northern areas and drier southern ones.

Right now, a weak La Niña is in place. It formed late last year and could last until early 2026. Experts give it a 55 percent chance of sticking around through February. But models show it fading fast, with neutral conditions likely from January to March 2026, at 65 to 75 percent odds. This weak version may not pack a big punch on global weather.

"A weaker event tends to exert less of an influence on the global circulation, so it's possible there will be surprises ahead." – Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA scientist

La Niña has already linked to ongoing droughts in the Greater Horn of Africa and parts of South America. It also brought extra rain to southeast Asia and Australasia. As it weakens, some regions might see steadier weather, but others face risks. Floods and landslides threaten the Sahel, southern Africa, northern Australia, and much of Asia. Drought could worsen in the Mediterranean, Horn of Africa, Brazil, and Central Asia.

Looking to 2026, signs point to El Niño returning, maybe by summer. Models show warming in the deep Pacific that could build into a strong event. This would flip patterns: wetter southern U.S., milder Midwest winters, and less drought risk there, but drier conditions elsewhere like India during monsoon season.

What This Means

These findings change how we see water crises. They are not just local problems but part of a worldwide system driven by ocean patterns. Farmers, cities, and governments need to plan for linked events. A drought in one continent might hit food supplies everywhere if crops fail at the same time.

For agriculture, this means big shifts. La Niña's dry effects have hurt crops in dry zones, while its rains have boosted others. As it fades, northern U.S. areas might see less snow and rain, affecting winter wheat. Southern regions could get drier still. An El Niño later in 2026 might bring more rain to the South but disrupt monsoons in Asia.

Water managers now have better tools from satellite data. They can predict when extremes might sync up and prepare. Stable neutral periods through spring 2026 could mean better crop yields without wild swings. But the risk of El Niño means staying ready for sudden changes in rain and heat.

Communities in flood-prone spots like Australia or Brazil must watch for La Niña's last gasps. Dry areas like the Horn of Africa need aid planning as conditions linger. Globally, warmer baselines from climate change make these events hit harder, turning normal cycles into bigger threats.

Economic impacts add up fast. Better forecasts save money in farming, energy, health, and transport. Early warnings have already helped avoid losses and save lives. As patterns shift toward more dry extremes, water storage and conservation become key in every region.

This global view helps tie together events that once seemed random. Places preparing alone miss the bigger picture. Coordinated efforts across borders can handle the next wave of floods or droughts when they arrive together.