Rubio warns of new geopolitical era as US, Europe face tensions

Secretary of State Marco Rubio landed in Munich on Friday to lead the American delegation at the 2026 Munich Security Conference, where he will address global leaders on Saturday amid rising tensions between Washington and Europe. The conference brings together top officials from around the world at a moment when the transatlantic relationship faces significant pressure, particularly following President Donald Trump's recent threats to acquire Greenland.

Rubio's arrival marks the beginning of what promises to be a contentious gathering. The US official will deliver a major speech to delegates from Europe, NATO members, and other world powers who are increasingly concerned about American commitment to traditional alliances. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are among the European leaders attending the three-day conference, which runs through Sunday.

Background

The Munich Security Conference has served as a important venue for discussing defence and security matters for decades. This year's edition comes at a particularly fraught moment for transatlantic relations. Europe has been grappling with questions about its own security independence as its relationship with the Trump administration faces what officials describe as unprecedented challenges.

The timing of the conference is significant. Just weeks ago, Trump made public statements about acquiring Greenland, an autonomous territory within Denmark. The remarks caught European leaders off guard and intensified concerns about the direction of American foreign policy. European governments have begun exploring greater self-reliance in security matters, a shift that reflects deeper anxieties about whether the US remains a reliable partner.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte acknowledged this moment of change, noting that European leaders have begun a "mindset shift" regarding defence spending. For years, the US complained that European NATO members were not spending enough on their militaries. That criticism appears to be having an effect, with European nations now increasing their defence budgets and taking on greater responsibility for their own security.

Key Details

Rubio's Message

Before departing for Munich, Rubio signalled that his message would focus on a fundamental change in global order. He stated that the world has entered a new era in geopolitics and that old assumptions no longer apply.

"The world is changing very fast right in front of us. The old world is gone, frankly, the world I grew up in, and we live in a new era in geopolitics, and it's going to require all of us to sort of re-examine what that looks like and what our role is going to be." – Marco Rubio

Rubio indicated that he has already held private conversations with American allies about this shifting landscape. He suggested that the meetings scheduled for Saturday would help move discussions forward, though he did not provide specific details about what changes the Trump administration might be proposing.

When asked about potential discussions regarding Greenland, Rubio did not directly address the issue but acknowledged that such conversations would take place. He also mentioned plans to discuss energy security with Hungary and Slovakia, urging them to reconsider their purchases of Russian energy.

European Expectations

European officials attending the conference have made clear what they want to hear from Washington. Rather than reassuring statements, they are seeking honesty about American intentions and a clearer picture of where the Trump administration plans to take US foreign policy.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul highlighted the conference as an opportunity to overcome NATO tensions and define shared priorities between the US and Europe. Conference chairman Wolfgang Ischinger posed direct questions to both sides: he asked European nations what concrete steps they were prepared to take to become more capable defenders of their own interests, and he asked the Trump administration whether it truly believes it needs allies and is prepared to treat them as genuine partners.

European leaders have signalled their willingness to do more on defence. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson outlined a three-part approach that includes making Europe more competitive economically, taking greater responsibility for its own security through NATO rebalancing, and continuing support for Ukraine while maintaining pressure on Russia.

What This Means

The conference represents a critical moment for the transatlantic alliance. Europe is at a crossroads, attempting to strengthen its own defence capabilities while preserving its relationship with the United States. The arrival of Rubio and his delegation signals that Washington intends to remain engaged in these discussions, but the substance of his remarks on Saturday will determine whether European leaders view the administration as committed to the alliance or pursuing a fundamentally different approach to international relations.

The outcome of this conference could reshape how Europe approaches its security for years to come. If European leaders conclude that they cannot rely on American security guarantees, they will likely accelerate plans for greater independence. Conversely, if Rubio's speech provides reassurance about American commitment while also clearly articulating new expectations, it could reset the terms of the transatlantic relationship on a more balanced footing.

The stakes are high not only for NATO but for global stability more broadly. How the US and Europe navigate this moment will influence responses to conflicts in Ukraine and elsewhere, approaches to China and Russia, and the future architecture of international security.