Stanford Faces Uphill Battle for NCAA Women’s Tournament Spot

Stanford's women's basketball team holds a 16-11 record and ranks No. 44 in the NET standings, a position that leaves their spot in the NCAA tournament uncertain as the regular season winds down. The Cardinal have struggled in ACC play with a 5-9 mark, putting them at risk of missing March Madness for a second straight year. Questions swirl around why teams like Nebraska remain in the mix despite similar challenges.

Background

The NET ranking serves as a key metric for NCAA tournament selection, factoring in team record, strength of schedule, and quality of wins and losses. Top teams like UConn at No. 1 with a perfect 27-0 record dominate the charts, while Stanford lingers around the mid-40s. Last season, Stanford missed the tournament after a string of losses, marking a rare absence for the program with its long history of success.

This year, the Cardinal started strong but hit roadblocks in conference games. They sit near the bottom of the ACC standings, with teams like Notre Dame at 8-6 and California at 7-7 ahead of them. Stanford's overall record masks deeper issues, including a 4-4 mark against the toughest Quadrant 1 opponents and losses to lower-ranked foes.

Nebraska, meanwhile, has drawn attention for hanging on the bubble. The Huskers' NET ranking places them higher than some expected, making them a last-four-in candidate in early projections. Their resume includes key wins that keep them alive, even as losses pile up.

Key Details

Stanford's quadrant breakdown shows balance but not enough punch: 4-4 in Quad 1, 2-3 in Quad 2, 4-3 in Quad III, and a perfect 6-0 in Quad IV. These numbers reflect games against top competition, where they split results but failed to build a standout resume. In ACC play, their 5-9 record means they need a strong finish to impress the committee.

Nebraska's Bubble Position

Nebraska finds itself in the last four in, thanks to a higher NET than Stanford despite a middling record. Their efficiency metrics hold up better in non-conference play, with wins over solid mid-majors boosting their profile. Recent losses have hurt, but enough quality victories keep them afloat.

Other bubble teams cluster in the 40s to 50s, like South Dakota State at No. 45 with 20-6 and Colorado at No. 46 with 18-8. These squads have stronger win totals, highlighting Stanford's disadvantage. Lower down, teams like UT Martin at No. 229 with 10-12 and Northwestern State at No. 230 with 11-12 show how far the drop-off is.

Stanford faces Miami on Thursday, a game that could shift their trajectory. A win there adds a Quad 1 victory, vital for climbing brackets. Nebraska's path includes tougher Big Ten matchups, where every result counts.

"Our focus is on winning out, no matter the opponent. The committee looks at the full body of work." – Tara VanDerveer, Stanford coach

What This Means

A miss for Stanford would extend their drought, forcing reliance on the NIT or worse. It signals a rebuild phase after years of dominance, with younger players stepping up amid injuries and tough scheduling. The ACC's depth has made every game a grind, exposing gaps in depth.

For Nebraska, staying in the last four in means playing in the First Four, a high-stakes opener. Bubble teams must win late games to solidify spots, as the committee weighs NET, record, and conference strength. South Dakota State and Colorado hold firmer ground with better wins, potentially bumping others out.

The selection show looms in a few weeks, with automatic bids from conference tournaments filling some slots. At-large berths, about 32, go to the strongest resumes. Stanford's No. 44 NET puts them on the edge; teams above No. 50 rarely sneak in without a title run.

Projections shift daily. Stanford climbed slightly in recent weeks but needs more. Nebraska's hold raises eyebrows, as their metrics outpace records of some locked teams. Coaches across the country watch these rankings, adjusting strategies for late surges.

Stanford's next games offer chances to build momentum. Wins over Miami and others could vault them into safer territory. Losses deepen the hole, mirroring last year's fade. The committee's decisions often hinge on head-to-head results and late performance, keeping hope alive for now.

Bubble watch intensifies as February ends. Teams like San Diego State at No. 72 with 19-4 and McNeese at No. 84 with 20-4 show varied paths to contention. Stanford must match that grit to avoid another postseason snub.