Early Predictions Shape 2026 College Football Playoff Bracket

Indiana won the College Football Playoff national championship on Monday night, beating Miami 27-21 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Hoosiers finished 16-0, the first team to do so in the modern era, and now lead early projections for next year's playoff bracket.

Background

Indiana's run came from nowhere. They started the season with 100-1 odds to win it all and had lost 700 games in program history, more than any other FBS team. Coach Curt Cignetti built a squad that beat top teams step by step. They took down Ohio State late in the year, won the Big Ten title, and kept winning through the playoff.

This sets up talks about 2026 right away. Teams lost players to the NFL draft and transfers, but some return key pieces. Indiana must replace stars, but they already have quarterback Josh Hoover in the fold. Other powers like Texas bring back Arch Manning at quarterback. Notre Dame eyes revenge after missing the 2025 playoff. Oregon adds transfers around Dante Moore.

The playoff stays at 12 teams. Four conference champs get byes, and at-large bids fill the rest. Early looks point to familiar names plus surprises. Big Ten produced three straight champs from 2023 to 2025, first Indiana, then Michigan before that, keeping Ohio State out. That streak could go on.

Key Details

Rankings put Indiana at number one in the first Way-Too-Early Top 25. Texas follows at two, Notre Dame at three, Georgia at four, and Oregon at five. Analysts see these teams carrying momentum.

Projected Playoff Bracket

One bracket has Oregon as the top seed and Big Ten champ. They get a first-round bye. Georgia takes the SEC as number two seed. Texas Tech wins the Big 12 for the number three bye. Notre Dame grabs the fourth bye as an at-large.

First-round matchups include Ohio State against Notre Dame in the quarters after beating lower seeds. Texas faces Texas Tech, then Indiana plays Georgia. Semifinals pit Texas against Indiana, and Notre Dame against Oregon. The title game has Texas over Oregon by a point.

Another projection seeds Indiana number one. They face the winner of Ole Miss at Miami. Oregon is five, playing a Group of 5 team, winner to Georgia. BYU at Ohio State goes to Notre Dame. Texas A&M at Texas Tech heads to Texas. Notre Dame and others fill at-large spots.

Conference picks vary. Big Ten goes to Oregon or Indiana. SEC to Georgia. Big 12 stays with Texas Tech after their 2025 run, where they averaged 38-11 wins in league games. ACC lands with Miami, who return running back Mark Fletcher Jr. and receiver Malachi Toney.

Texas adds transfers and has Manning. USC pushes for a spot with Lincoln Riley calling 2026 their year. They have a 59 percent chance per models. Texas sits at 68 percent. Notre Dame's CJ Carr and defense make them strong. Quarterback matchups like Carr against Moore could decide games.

"Notre Dame always has good running backs, and their defense looks loaded next year." – College football analyst

Indiana retooled fast with Hoover. Ohio State and Miami rank high for return chances. Oregon lost to Indiana in the Peach Bowl but grows wiser.

What This Means

Roster turnover hits every team. Indiana lost talent but recruits well. Texas and Oregon load up via portal. Texas Tech adds quarterback Brendan Sorsby and receivers like Malcolm Simmons. Georgia keeps defensive stars such as linebackers Chris Cole and Raylen Wilson, plus corner Ellis Robinson IV.

Miami stays ACC favorite despite losses. Duke's Darian Mensah might start at quarterback. BYU and Oklahoma State eye upsets. No clear Group of 5 standout yet due to coaching changes and transfers.

These early brackets show parity. Big Ten depth with Oregon, USC, Iowa, Michigan, and Washington challenges. SEC and Big 12 stay strong. Notre Dame motivates after 2025 snub. Models give Oregon 16 percent title odds.

Playoff path rewards conference winners. At-larges go to consistent performers. Indiana defends as number one seed favorite. Texas eyes in-state fixes against Tech. Every top team faces questions on offense or depth, but defenses like Georgia's hold firm.

Fans watch spring practices and portals. Kickoff nears in August. Brackets shift with injuries, wins, and surprises, but patterns emerge now. Indiana starts as target. Others chase with returning skill and new blood.